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09/01/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The St. Louis Cardinals are playing themselves out of postseason contention, but at least they'll be able to conclude a horrendous road trip today in the finale of a three-game series against the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park.
St. Louis has lost four in a row and is 2-7 on a 10-game swing through Pittsburgh, Washington and Houston -- all teams with losing records. It has been shut out in back-to-back 3-0 losses to the Astros and fell seven games behind Cincinnati for the NL Central lead after Tuesday's defeat.
Houston scored all three of its runs in the third inning and Cardinals co-ace Chris Carpenter was saddled with the loss for allowing three runs -- two earned -- and six hits through seven innings. Jon Jay, Matt Holliday and Brendan Ryan provided the three hits for the Cardinals, who still have life in the wild card standings at four games behind Philadelphia.
"Unfortunately it's not going well for us right now," said Carpenter. "We gotta come out [Wednesday] and do everything we can and try to salvage something from this series."
The Cardinals, losers in 12 of their last 16 games, must not overlook today's opponent with the despised Reds set to invade Busch Stadium for three games over the weekend.
Jeff Suppan will be in charge of pulling the Cards to victory and is slated to take the mound Wednesday. Suppan has been on the disabled list with a groin strain and is just 1-4 in eight starts with the Cardinals. He was 0-4 in his previous five outings before besting Pittsburgh the last time out on July 31, when he delivered 5 1/3 shutout innings and five strikeouts.
Suppan, a right-hander, lost to Houston back on July 10, when he permitted four runs in 4 2/3 innings of a 4-1 loss. He is 3-8 with a 5.12 earned run average in 19 career meetings (17 starts) with the Astros.
Houston has been on a roll as of late with eight wins in its last 10 contests. It will be aiming for its second sweep of the Cardinals this season and won all three encounters with them from May 11-13 in the Gateway City.
In last night's second straight blanking of the Cardinals, starter Wandy Rodriguez hurled seven shutout innings of two-hit ball for the win and Brandon Lyon later posted his 10th save in the ninth.
"It's becoming a nice habit to say that our starting pitching did an outstanding job," said Houston manager Brad Mills. "And again, Wandy did a great job again tonight. He's been outstanding for the past two or three months."
Hunter Pence hit a two-run triple during the decisive three-run fourth inning and Chris Johnson added an RBI single two batters later.
Taking the mound for Houston this afternoon will be Nelson Figueroa and he's 1-1 with a 2.15 ERA in 11 games (3 starts) for his ballclub. Figueroa, who also made 13 appearances (1 start) for Philadelphia this season, lost his most recent start on Friday in a 2-1 defeat against the New York Mets. He allowed only two runs -- one earned -- in seven innings.
The right-hander is 2-1 with a 4.14 ERA in 12 career games (4 starts) against the Cardinals.
Houston has won nine of 14 meetings with the Cardinals this season.
<< 2010 World Basketball Championship update - September 1st
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) -
Group C: China vs. Russia, 9 a.m. (Ankara)
Group A: Serbia vs. Australia, 9:30 a.m. (Kayseri)
Group B: Croatia vs. Tunisia, 9:30 a.m. (Istanbul)
Group C: Ivory Coast vs. Greece, 11:30 a.m. (Ankara)
Group D: Leban
<< Tickets go on sale for NBA games in London
LONDON (AP) -Tickets have gone on sale for the first regular-season NBA games in Europe.The New Jersey Nets and Toronto Raptors will play a pair of games at the O2 Arena in London on March 4-5. The NBA is planning a week of activities across Britain
<< Long-time Stamps physician Murphy passes away
Calgary, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Calgary Stampeders physician Dr. Vince Murphy
has passed away at the age of 87, the team announced Tuesday.
Dr. Murphy was associated with the Stampeders since 1957. A release from the
team said Murphy pass
<< Boiman getting crash course in Lions defense
ALLEN PARK, Mich. (AP) - Rocky Boiman isn't going to get a chance to ease his way into the Detroit Lions' defense.It's going to be more like cramming for final exams in his days at Notre Dame.The veteran linebacker signed with the Detroit Lions earl
Alabama A&M linebacker to sit two games >>
Normal, AL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The NCAA ruled that Alabama A&M's top returning
tackler Afu Okosun must sit out the season's first two games because he played
in one game in 2006 before he was redshirted that season.
Alabama A&M coach
Iowa C Koeppel to miss opener after crash >>
Iowa City, IA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Iowa senior center Josh Koeppel will miss
Saturday's season opener against Eastern Illinois due to injuries sustained
in a crash on his moped.
The Daily Iowan reported that Koeppel was hit head-on by
New FCS head coaches ready for debuts >>
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Seventeen of the 19 new head coaches at
FCS schools will make their debuts during the first week of games, including
two facing off against each other on the first night of action Thursday.
Dale Carlson wi
Twins' Liriano puts unbeaten streak on line vs. Tigers >>
(Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Playing at Target Field has usually translated into
success for the Minnesota Twins. And when Francisco Liriano has taken the
mound, the current American League Central leaders have been nearly invincible
as of l
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
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